Rising Star: The Incredible Transformation of an NHL Draft Eligible Prospect - Why Scouts Must Take Notice Now
Analyzing the Emergence of OHL Bulldogs' Winger Nick Lardis as a Top Prospect for the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Making a Case for Top 50.
Nick Lardis: Making a Case for Top 50
Nick Lardis, a member of the OHL's Hamilton Bulldogs, is making a strong case to be a highly touted draft-eligible prospect for the 2023 NHL Entry Draft despite currently being projected to be selected in the mid to late third round. In just 15 games with the Bulldogs, Lardis has emerged as the league's top goal scorer since his trade and is becoming the one to watch in the OHL this season.
In this article, we will dig deep into Lardis' early career and examine his potential for development, highlighting his recent productivity, agility, high-end puck skills, and elite skating that make him a standout candidate for an early selection as a top 50 draft choice in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
Early Career Overview
Having followed Lardis’ journey since his AAA Oakville Rangers days, it has become apparent to me that he is beginning to blossom into the player that he was meant to be when he was drafted 6th overall by the Peterborough Petes in the 2021 OHL Priority Selection Draft.
Lardis caught my attention when he received an invitation to play at the prestigious 2015 Brick Invitational Hockey Tournament, a showcase for the most talented 9- and 10-year-old hockey players in North America. This experience, which has attracted notable players such as Auston Matthews, Steven Stamkos, and Johnny Gaudreau, would have undoubtedly made a positive impact in Lardis’ early development years.Â
Throughout his tenure in Oakville, he developed alongside his long-time linemate Calum Ritchie, who was a second overall pick in the same OHL draft as Lardis and is a projected to go top 15 in this year’s NHL draft. Having dominated minor hockey together, Ritchie and Lardis have followed similar trajectories in the OHL, with Ritchie projected to score 68 points this year, and Lardis expected to score 63.
Lardis is currently projected to be drafted middle to late third round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft according to NHL Central Scouting and Draft Prospects Hockey; however, I believe there is a strong case for him to slot himself in the first or second round considering the recent sprout and growth in his play.
Scouting Report: Analyzing Lardis’ Strengths
As you can see above, Lardis possesses a rare combination of agility and high-end puck skills that allows him to excel in both areas. Unlike many players, he is unlikely to experience the challenge of his puck skills not being able to keep up with his speed, or vice versa. Lardis has an explosive first stride, aided by strong inside and outside edge work and acceleration, which allows him to create separation and blow past defenders after receiving a pass.
In addition to these skills, Lardis has a high hockey IQ, a quick release, excellent playmaking ability, and deceptive stick checking and forechecking abilities (due to his quickness and explosive first stride) which makes for a great 200 foot player.
However, what truly distinguishes his game from others is his exceptional skating ability, encompassing edge control, lateral movement, and transitions - he excels in all aspects. Lardis was able to demonstrate and put his skills to the test at the 2023 CHL/NHL Top Prospects game.
Lardis Tops Fitness Testing at Top Prospects Game
It was without question that he was an elite skater after topping the fitness testing at the 2023 Kubota CHL/NHL Top Prospects game, which featured a variety of on-ice testing, geared towards skating ability. Out of 10 tests, Lardis placed top five in seven of them, and first place in two of them, giving him the highest overall score. On top of this, Lardis ended up recording a primary assist in the Top Prospects game the following day.
Scouting Report: Analyzing Lardis’ Weaknesses
The main concern with Lardis is his strength, given his weight of only 165 pounds at 5'11", which is quite typical for a 17-year-old who still has time to grow taller and stronger. As he gains strength, it will have a significant impact on his game, allowing him to combine his speed with a strong presence on the puck and take his game to the next level. There have also been questions about Lardis’ decision making ability under pressure. This is a skill that will improve as his experience and confidence increases; especially considering his larger role and leadership on the Bulldogs. On-ice decision making is a skill that can be taught, unlike the ability to be the dynamic skater that Lardis is. When it comes to productivity, Lardis' draft ranking appeared to have fallen during his sophomore year because of a slow start in the Petes' 2022 season, leading some to project that he would go in the late third round. Later in the article, I will be discussing why his productivity at the start of the season isn’t indicative of his true potential.
Promising Rookie Season at the Junior Level
Drafted 6th overall, Lardis started his junior career with the Peterborough Petes, putting up impressive numbers for a rookie. With 18 goals and 37 points in 63 games (0.59 PPG) as a 16-year-old, his rookie season was quite promising. When compared to other recent dominant OHL alumni who were first-round draft picks in their draft-eligible year and have already earned a role on their respective NHL teams, his performance is not too far off their mark as outlined below:
Wyatt Johnston: 30 points in 53 GP (0.57 PPG)
Mason McTavish: 42 points in 57 GP (0.74 PPG)
Limited Opportunities Impacted Lardis’ Potential
Even though Lardis had promising rookie numbers in his first year with the Petes, I had always felt that he wasn’t fully demonstrating his true potential and future skill ceiling, which was mainly due to lack of opportunity in his second year in Peterborough. Being part of an older Petes team that was stacked with skilled over-agers and 19-year-olds really limited the opportunities available to Lardis. As a 17-year-old, it was understandable that he wasn't given top minutes or a role on the top powerplay unit.
This brings me to the best thing that has ever happened for Lardis’ hockey career…
The Turning Point: The Trade to the Hamilton Bulldogs
It’s crazy what a change in deployment can do for a player. An extra 5 minutes of ice time and 1 minute of powerplay time per game can do wonders for a player and their confidence. Midway through his second season, Lardis was traded to the Bulldogs, who had naturally taken a rebuild route after their previous season as OHL champions. After selling off most of their remaining core in exchange for Lardis, Sahil Panwar, and some draft picks, Lardis found himself in a key role, playing top minutes on the top line alongside over-ager Panwar and Patrick Thomas, who have been an absolute force to be reckoned with. Since assuming a bigger role on the team, Lardis has been playing top minutes, top powerplay, and even penalty kill. Since being traded, he has recorded a whopping 15 goals and 27 points in just 15 games with the club, being held scoreless in only two of those games. To put this in perspective..
Here’s where Lardis ranks among points in the last 15 games compared to the top 10 current OHL point scorers:
WSR - Matthew Maggio: 33 ptsÂ
NB - Matvey Petrov: 29 pts
HAM - Nick Lardis: 27 pts
OTT - Logan Morrison: 26 pts
SAR - Sasha Pastujov: 25 pts
PBO - Tucker Robertson: 24 pts
MISS - James Hardie: 24 pts
FLNT - Amadeus Lombardi: 23 pts
LDN - Sean McGurn: 23 pts
NB - Kyle Jackson: 19 pts
SAR - Ty Voit: 18 pts
Pretty impressive 15-game stretch from Lardis here, keep in mind Maggio and Petrov are 19 and 20 years old respectively.
Additionally, here’s a look at where Lardis slots in goals among the top 10 goal scorers in the league in the last 15 games:
HAM - Nick Lardis: 15G
OS - Colby Barlow: 14G
WSR - Matthew Maggio: 13G
MISS - James Hardie: 12G
FLNT - Amadeus Lombardi: 11G
PBO - Tucker Robertson: 11G
WSR - Alex Christopoulos: 10 G
PBO - Avery Hayes: 9G
KIT - Francesco Arcuri: 9G
SBY - David Goyette: 9G
SAR - Nolan Burke: 9G
It's important to note that this is just a 15-game sample size, but Lardis' recent success doesn't seem like a fluke. With his new role on the team, he's been able to play to his strengths and shoot the puck more often. If you were to factor his current scoring pace over a full 68 game OHL season, he is on par to score 68 goals and 122 points.
Finally, I wanted to explore the correlation between the sheer volume of shots and the number of goals scored. It appeared that Lardis was taking more shots with Hamilton than he did with Peterborough, where he was previously the primary puck carrier for zone entries. In his new, more supportive and complimentary role with the Bulldogs, Lardis has been able to unleash his scoring potential. Moreover, I anticipated that many of the players who were among the league leaders in shots would also be among the leaders in goals scored. After analyzing the data, my expectation was confirmed.
Here are Lardis' shot totals in the last 15 games, which place him among the top 10 players in the league with the most shots during that period:
WSR - Matthew Maggio: 86 SOG
OS - Colby Barlow: 80 SOG
PBO - Brennan Othmann: 74 SOG
PBO - Avery Hayes: 72 SOG
MISS - James Hardie: 70 SOG
SAR - Sasha Pastujov: 67 SOG
HAM - Nick Lardis: 60 SOG
OTT - Brady Stonehouse: 58 SOG
SOO - Bryce McConnell-Barker: 52 SOG
KIT - Francesco Arcuri: 49 SOG
NB - Ty Nelson: 45 SOG
Lardis has taken 60 shots in the last 15 games, which puts him in seventh place for the most shots taken among the top 10 players for most shots in the league. As anyone would expect, more shots equals more goals, and with Lardis playing in a more comfortable role where he can shoot more often, he can continue to rack up points and keep up a similar pace - which is my reasoning for his recent success not being a fluke or just a lucky streak. To put this into perspective, 43% of all of his shots taken in the season came in the last 15 games.
Final Thoughts and Draft Ranking
Lardis' draft ranking began at 44 in the summer after his rookie season with the Petes. However, it declined to 63 in the early-season ranking and further to 85 in the mid-season. This was likely due to his slow start in Peterborough during the first half of the season. Nonetheless, I anticipate his ranking to bounce back to at least 50, with a potential of first round, if he maintains his current momentum for the late-season and final ranking.
His recent breakout with the Bulldogs suggests that he is a player to watch in the OHL for both scouts and NHL organizations. His outstanding performance and current pace could potentially elevate him even higher in the draft ranks, making him a valuable early pick for the upcoming NHL Entry Draft.
I’m just gonna leave this here…
Very clean article. Interesting read!
Really well written article, thanks so much for showing why Nick Lardis is a beast and deserves a big shot